The Farmers Almanac is predicting a “teeth chattering” winter season across many central northern areas of the country and a snow – laden season for the great lakes. Their winter outlook, released this August, also suggest that the North West and West from Oregon to California will be less cold in comparison with temperatures closer to average. This is fairly similar to our winter forecast which suggests that the North East could have a particularly potent winter season, along with the lakes, but something a little less “intense” the further west you are.
Credit: Farmers Almanac
The Farmers’ Almanac outlook is a cold one this year for much of the North with temperatures closer to average on the coasts.
Other Winter 2018-2019 Weather Forecasts:
Interestingly, “Firsthand weather” have also recently released their winter forecast which suggests something colder and snowier for northern and eastern areas with the milder, drier weather in the south west. Find that forecast here.
Our Winter 2018-2019 Forecast.
Simply put, you can never be 100% about long range forecasts. The weather can not be predicted with accuracy more than a few days ahead, so at best long range weather predictions are “educated estimations” of what might come. Of course, we have seen time and time again a number of “wrong” predictions for winter. However I currently see the 2013 or 2014/15 pattern repeating itself across the U.S. which could give us a typical El Niño pattern, that is cold in the north east and less severe the further west you go. Of course it is impossible to predict week to week or even month to month snow or weather forecasts at this stage, and even snow accumulation forecasts are not possible, just because of the uncertainty involved in long range winter forecasts.
Breakdown of Forecast: Wetter and cooler for the southern states from Texas to Georgia and Florida, Colder and snowier for the upper north east from New Jersey and Maryland up to Newfoundland, Canada. Higher temperatures and drier than average for the north west and west in general, from the Dakotas to California and Oregon. Area of “uncertainty” indicates there will likely be a mix of drier, colder and wetter influences from the 3 areas indicated for central areas. It is advised that you understand the complications and uncertainties of longer range weather forecasts.
Similarities with the winter of 2014.
I see a potential for a 2014-2015 winter repeat with the bulk of the cold weather in the north east. There are 2 factors that are repeating this winter 1) Moderate El Niño 2) Very Warm Northern Pacific Temperatures.
Summary: No one can be certain – but the signs are there for a colder winter in the north east than the last couple.